Carbon Shift to Ease Scrapping of Tax: Coalition

THE Coalition says the linking of Australia's carbon price to Europe's will make it easier for Tony Abbott to axe the scheme, by giving firms a market to resell unnecessary forward-dated permits. 
 
The opposition's acting climate change spokesman Simon Birmingham said Australian firms buying emissions permits in the European carbon market would not be left holding worthless paper when the Coalition abolished the Australian scheme.

“They will have a safe and clear way to offload those permits back into the European scheme,” Mr Birmingham said.

“We've always made it clear that it was possible to abolish the carbon tax and this further demonstrates there is absolutely no impediment to doing so.”

Labor yesterday moved assuage business fears about the impact of the carbon tax by dumping the scheme's controversial $15 a tonne floor price, a change that could slash hundreds of millions of dollars from annual company costs.

The scheme will be linked to the European carbon price from July 1, 2015, allowing Australian firms to buy and sell permits on the world's biggest carbon market.

But the move exposes the government to a potential multi-billion dollar budget hit, with emissions permits in Europe currently trading at about $8 a tonne - far below the $29 a tonne figure the government is relying on to reap a forecast $9.2 billion in revenue in 2015-16.

Australian Industry Group chief executive Innes Willox said linking the scheme to Europe was a good move.

But he said it was difficult to see the European carbon price getting up to $29.

“It's fanciful,” Mr Willox told Sky News, although he added: “This is a positive move in the long term.”

Mr Willox said there were a “whole lot of balls in the air” with the Coalition's policy.
“Business needs long term certainty ... the certainty of a regulatory framework,” he said.

Climate Change Minister Greg Combet said the EU carbon price had been hit hard by the eurozone financial crisis, but it would recover.

“It is three years away,” Mr Combet said. “The treasury modelling is something we stand by.”

Australia, EU ETS to Link in 2015

The Australian government today confirmed it will not enforce its carbon floor price when its emissions trading programme commences in 2015 as it moves to link with the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS).

Emitters in Australia are required to pay for every tonne of carbon dioxide they emit, currently at a fixed price of A$23 (US$23.87). It was originally proposed that from 1 July 2015, that price will be allowed to float within a band.

However, the Australian government and European Commission today announced that, from that date, Australian firms can use EU allowances (EUAs) for compliance and, by 1 July 2018, EU ETS participants will be permitted to use Australian allowances for compliance. To enable this linkage, the planned A$15 floor price will be scrapped.

And while Australian emitters can use international credits, such as EUAs, for 50% of their compliance from 2015, the cap on Kyoto credits – such as certified emission reductions (CERs) from Clean Development Mechanism projects – will be restricted to 12.5% of an emitter’s liability, said the government, from the previous 50%. “Linking the Australian and European Union systems reaffirms that carbon markets are the prime vehicle for tackling climate change and the most efficient means of achieving emissions reductions,” said Australia’s climate minister Greg Combet.

“Starting today, Australian liable entities can purchase [EUAs] for future compliance in Australia,” he added. “These arrangements provide Australian businesses with access to a larger market for cost-effective emission reductions and provide European market participants with enhanced business opportunities.”

“This would be a significant achievement for both Europe and Australia,” said the EU’s climate commissioner, Connie Hedegaard. “It is further evidence of strong international cooperation on climate change and will build further momentum towards establishing a robust international carbon market.”

“This is an impressive development – a first of its kind in having two major economies link their carbon pricing programmes,” said Dirk Forrister, Geneva-based president of lobby group the International Emissions Trading Association (IETA). “IETA members – and economists worldwide – have advocated the potential cost-savings benefits of linking for over a decade, so we are extremely pleased with this news, even as we continue studying the details.”

EUA prices were firmer this morning, up 2% at 8.30 GMT to €8.30 (US$10.42) for the benchmark December 2012 futures contract.

“It is a bit of much-needed positive news,” said one London-based trader.

“There might have been some knee-jerk buying this morning, but it’s too early in the day for the EU-Australia linkage to have a significant price impact,” countered Geoff Sinclair, head of carbon sales and trading at Standard Bank in London.

“If it remains in legislation, this might add around 100 million tonnes of demand to the EU scheme, although the extent to which it does will rely heavily on relative prices and exchange rates, so this doesn’t get the EU off the hook when it comes to the need for a set-aside [of EUAs to address massive oversupply in the EU ETS].

“At the same time, the linkage is likely to make the Australian scheme more palatable in terms of domestic politics, which is likely to boost investor confidence about its longevity,” he added.

“The removal of the floor price, the linking with the EU and the limit on the use of Kyoto units all impact the shape for the forward price curve from 2015 onwards,” said analysts at Westpac in Sydney. “Subject to the release of the actual legislation, the aggregate impact of these changes is that the EUA price will now become the primary influence on the [Australian carbon] price rather than the CER price.

“Further, the removal of the administrative complexity of hedging the price floor’s ‘top-up fee’ will presumably free up Australian liable entities to access cheap, cost-effective options in international markets sooner rather than later.”

The Australian government foresaw some kind of measure to require Australian emitters buying CERs below the floor price to pay a top-up fee – an administratively complex exercise, that is now unnecessary.

The Australian and EU authorities hope to agree on how to link their respective emissions registries, which track trades of allowances, by the middle of next year. However, the European Commission still needs to receive a mandate from member states to enter into negotiations for the two-way link.

Government to Scrap Carbon Floor Price

After weeks of secretive talks between the Gillard government and the Greens, Climate Change Minister Greg Combet has announced Labor will scrap the planned $15 floor price on carbon permits in a major overhaul of the carbon pricing scheme.

Following intense lobbying from business and threats by the independent MP Rob Oakeshott to block the floor price, the government will ditch the mechanism and instead restrict the purchase of cheap overseas permits from developing countries.

A limit on the amount of United Nations-backed permits that Australian companies can buy will effectively prop up the price at home.

Climate Change Minister Greg Combet plans to scrap the $15 carbon floor price. Photo: Alex Ellinghausen

Mr Combet also announced plans to link Australia's scheme to Europe's emissions trading scheme from 2015, which is likely to have the effect of matching the two prices.

 

The link with Europe means that Australian companies can start buying European permits - which are now trading at $9.80 - right away to meet their future liabilities.

This could make the carbon price cheaper overall for Australian businesses, though the European price is likely to rise by the end of the decade as the European Union moves to make restrictions of its own.

Australian companies will only be able to meet 12.5 per cent of their liability under the Australian carbon scheme with the UN-backed permits.

And from 2018 - or possibly sooner - Australian companies will be able to sell credits in Europe. This could be a boon for farmers, who can generate credits through changes to their land practices, such as tree planting, though Mr Combet said that aspect was still to be negotiated.

The carbon price, which came in on July 1, will initially be fixed at $23 and will rise slightly over the next two years, when it becomes a floating-price emissions trading scheme.

Europe has the largest emissions trading scheme in the world. A linkage means that carbon permits can be traded back and forth between Australia and Europe. The idea is that the free market then finds the cheapest possible way to reduce carbon. From an environmental viewpoint, it does not matter where the carbon cuts are made.

The floor price was intended to create certainty for potential investors in clean energy. But businesses complained it would be an administrative headache.

Without a restriction of the UN-backed international permits, the Australian price could crash to as low as $3 or $4. The Greens have been concerned that a very low carbon price would not be enough to drive investment in cleaner energy such as wind, solar and wave power.

Today's announcement is also likely to have an effect on negotiations between Energy Minister Martin Ferguson and electricity generators who could be paid billions of dollars to phase out their dirtiest power plants.

The likely price of carbon over the next decade is one factor in deciding the value of these power plants. They may argue that scrapping the floor price raises the value of their assets.
The Greens have already backed the changes.

Independent MP Rob Oakeshott said this afternoon he would also support the legislation.
He said the announcement would protect Australia's emissions trading scheme from some ''very difficult decisions into the future''.

Opposition Leader Tony Abbott said the changes showed the government was all at sea on the carbon tax.

''You can't fix it. You've just got to scrap it,'' Mr Abbott told reporters in Rockhampton.

''We haven't had the carbon tax for two months yet and they've admitted there is a fundamental flaw at the heart of the carbon tax.''

Mr Abbott said there would be a ''huge hole'' in the budget as a result of the decision.

''If you can't take the price for granted, you can't take the revenue for granted, and if you can't take the revenue for granted, you can't rely on the compensation,'' he said.

However Mr Combet said the government would not reduce household assistance payments and tax cuts set up to compensate for the price impacts of the carbon tax.

Asked if he was contemplating any further changes Mr Combet said: ‘‘no’’.

''We will not be cutting any household assistance,'' he said.

''We committed to it and you might recall that there are further tax cuts that have been legislated from 2015 as well.''

Australian Mining Boom Peak Years Away

THE government's efforts to talk up the longevity of the mining boom will be boosted today by an influential report that predicts mining industry investment is still several years away from peaking. 

And the report by economic forecaster BIS Shrapnel predicts other sectors of the economy will lift to fill the gap when the mining sector inevitably slows.

A series of cabinet ministers insisted yesterday the mining boom had further to run, in an attempt to counter fears of a slowdown after BHP Billiton's decision last week to shelve its $30 billion Olympic Dam expansion and Resource Minister Martin Ferguson's controversial declaration that the boom was over.

Against a dreary outlook for the prices of Australia's key exports, BIS Shrapnel believes the value of contracted resource projects means mining investment would not peak until 2014, with Queensland and Western Australia tied up with major projects for three to five years.

"After that, non-mining investment will stabilise and start to pick up, taking over as the engine of growth and smoothing the transition," says the BIS report, to be released today.

It suggests lower interest rates will boost retail spending, which had been held back by low confidence and weak demand rather than the Australian dollar.

"Over time, capacity constraints outside mining, such as those already evident in the construction sector, will prompt a broadening of investment beyond mining," it says.

Frank Gelber, chief economist at BIS Shrapnel, said the realisation that the investment mining boom was finite would cause people to "overreact on the pessimistic side".

"All of a sudden, the glass seems to have become one-quarter full, but nothing has changed," he told The Australian in a reference to Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens's optimistic glass-half-full depiction of Australia's economy.

"Our report aims to dispel some of the panicky discussion about the end of the boom," Mr Gelber said, predicting economic growth of 3 per cent this year and next.

BIS Shrapnel believes continued strong commodity prices will keep the Australian dollar high "for a few more years", putting pressure on other trade-exposed industries.

Trade Minister Craig Emerson said yesterday the mining boom was not even halfway through, while Workplace Relations Minister Bill Shorten noted that his department was projecting that another 100,000 jobs would be created in the mining industry over the next five years.

"Mr Ferguson is right: we might have reached the peak in prices, but volumes are still increasing and there are still plenty of projects," Mr Shorten said, attempting to paper over any divisions in cabinet.
"I don't think that the contribution that mining is going to make in jobs and economic output for Australia has at all peaked." Wayne Swan said the mining boom was better understood "as a series of booms - a boom in prices, a boom in investment and a boom in exports".

The Treasurer said that while the price boom had passed its peak, "the investment boom still has some way to run" and the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics had forecast commodity export earnings to reach a record $209 billion this financial year as higher volumes offset lower prices.

JPMorgan chief China economist Haibin Zhu, visiting Sydney last week, told Sky Business's Australian Business on Friday night Chinese demand for Australia's resources would slow but remain at a very high level over the next five to 10 years.

"What follows the recent boom is going to be far from a bust," he said, pointing out the Chinese government was intent on stabilising the country's growth at a lower but more stable level.
He warned that China's one-child policy would sap its potential economic growth rate by about one-quarter within the next five to 10 years.

"The share of working-age people in the population is shrinking and the number of workers will start to decline in the next few years," he said.

Mr Gelber also dismissed the impact of the carbon tax on BHP's decision to shelve its Olympic Dam copper, gold and uranium mine expansion, arguing it would go ahead once construction costs eased. "Such a long-term project means it is hard to predict ultimate prices and demand," he said.

Mr Swan said he was "pleased" to see discussion about the longevity of the mining boom. "But behaving as if the investment pipeline has suddenly run dry is not only false, it's irresponsible," he said, pointing out the Reserve Bank governor had said mining investment would not peak for a few years yet.

Aussie Banks Worth More Than Europe's Combined

FOR the first time in history the value of Australian banks are now worth more than the Eurozone. 
 
The Commonwealth Bank made a net profit of almost $7.1 billion, the biggest ever reported by an Australian bank. That boils down to a daily profit of almost $19.5 million or more than $13,000 a minute.

 ANZ  posted a $4.4 billion profit for the nine months to June, an increase of 10 per cent.

CBA chief executive Ian Narev told the Adelaide Advertiser that he is “proud and not embarrassed” by the massive profit surge. He said the results boil down to strong Australian economy and the confidence of their shareholders.

“The people who own this group. . . 60 per cent of them are Australian households directly, that's 800,000 Australian families, “Another 20 per cent of our shareholders are Australians who own them directly through their pension funds.

“So the shareholders who we are doing well for are millions and millions of Australian households,” said Mr Narev.

ANZ's Australian, New Zealand and Asian operations, chief executive Mike Smith told news.com.au the group attributes their success to effective management of ongoing funding and competitive pressures. He also said ANZ had picked up market share in deposits, mortgages and business lending

Other financial analysts have said the massive profits can be explained by the fact that unlike European and American banks, Australia have not loaded up on subprime debt, bad real estate loans or “piles of dodgy foreign debt”.

Home Owners Forced to Take Super - Australia Mortgage

HOME owners have raided their superannuation funds of a record $100 million in last-ditch bids to avoid foreclosure, new government figures have shown.

The surge in mortgage-holders seeking emergency access to their savings has alarmed housing and social welfare groups, who warn many families are still struggling to meet loan repayments despite steep cuts in the interest rate

With distressed owners receiving an average of $15,250 each, there are also concerns some super accounts could be drained of more than a third of their value. The number of households in serious financial trouble has worsened despite mortgage lending rates falling about 1 per cent in the past six months and nearly 3 per cent since their peak in mid-2008.

Figures obtained by The Sun-Herald showed 6500 home owners were given emergency access to their super last financial year to prevent an imminent foreclosure.

A Commonwealth Department of Human Services report found $99.38 million was released, up 25 per cent on 2010-11 and well above the disbursements in the aftermath of the global financial crisis.
It also marks the third year in a row that the number of people applying for, and being granted access to, their nest-egg has increased.

A campaign manager for Australians for Affordable Housing, Sarah Toohey, said years of house price growth had seen debt balloon and forced households to devote an unsustainable amount of income to meeting mortgage repayments.

''It's alarming and it shows that housing affordability is about more than just interest rates,'' she said.
''The sheer size of what people have to borrow to get into the housing market now really puts household finances under strain.'

Gold Prices Boost Newcrest Profit

NEWCREST Mining's full year profit is up 23 per cent due to rising gold prices and the company expects gold production to rise in the current financial year.

Newcrest today posted a net profit of $1.12 billion for the year to June 30, up from $908 million in the previous corresponding period.

Revenue of $4.4 billion in the year to June was an eight per cent increase on the previous year's $4.1 billion.

Newcrest produced 2.29 million ounces of gold in the year to June, a drop of 10 per cent on the previous year.

The company said it expected production in the 2012/13 financial year to be in a range of 2.3 million to 2.5 million ounces.

Copper production in the year to June of 76,015 tonnes was up one per cent on the previous year.
Newcrest said it expected copper production in 2012/13 to be in the range of 75 thousand tonnes to 85 thousand tonnes.

The statutory profit was a record for Newcrest.

Its underlying profit of $1.1 billion, up two per cent from last year, was also a record.

The difference between the headline and underlying profits related to $46 million gained from the sale of two Queensland projects to Evolution Mining during the year.

Newcrest benefited from a higher realised gold price for the year of $1,609 per ounce, which was 17 per cent or $231 per ounce higher than the previous year.

Elsewhere, cost of sales increased by nine per cent to $2.601 billion, its gold sales fell by six per cent to 2.3 million ounces and production was down 10 per cent.

The company blamed the cost hikes on increased mining activity pushing up the cost of labour, fuel and energy, and negative currency exchange factors.

Newcrest says it plans to pay a final ordinary dividend of 23 cents per share (15 per cent franked), bringing the total to 35 cents per share, 17 per cent higher than the prior year.

It's interim distribution of 12 cents was unfranked.